F8652E automation module
Technical data of product parameters
The expected number of crashes without the treatment along with the variance of this parameter and
the number of reported crashes after the treatment is used to estimate the index of effectiveness,F8652E
which is also referred to as the crash modification factor and the variance of the crash modification
factor.
There are some variations to how this method could be applied. For example, Sayed et al.,F8652Eargue
for the use of a comparison group (independent of the reference group to develop the SPFs) to account
for temporal effects. In many other studies F8652Ethe annual factors
from the SPFs (mentioned in Step 3 above) are used to account for the temporal effects.
Currently, there are no accepted methods for determining the required sample sizes for before-after
studies that employ the empirical Bayes method. One option is to use the method discussed in Chapter
9 for Hauer (1997) for before-after comparison group studies with the understanding that the sample
size estimates from that method could be considered conservative. For an example, readers are
referred to the section on Study Design in Persaud F8652E
Full or Hierarchical Bayes Before-After Study
As discussed above in the case of empirical Bayes methods, a reference group is used to estimate the
expected crash frequency from a SPF. These estimates are then combined with the observed crash
frequency in the before period of the treatment group to estimate the long-term expected crash
frequency without the treatment. In the case of the full or hierarchical Bayes approach, the distribution
of likely values from the reference group is used instead of the point estimate. By using the distribution
of likely values, more accurate estimates of the CMF and its variance are possible (
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